MODEL ACCURACY
NHL projections were fitted on the 2024-25 season and tested on every 2025-26 regular-season game, which the model never saw while being built. Each projection used only games played before puck drop. Every market is a count, so each is judged both on its average miss and on how well its line probabilities matched what happened.
PLAYER MARKETS held-out 2025-26 season
Error = typical miss of the projected average (lower is better); the model must beat a season average and a last-10-games average. Probability score = how well the chance of going over the main line matched reality (lower is better), against a season average.
THIS SEASON SO FAR
HOW IT'S SCORED
College football projections were fitted on the 2024 season and tested on every 2025 FBS game, which the model never saw while being built. Each projection used only games played before kickoff.
PLAYER MARKETS held-out 2025 season
Error = typical miss of the projected average (lower is better); the model must beat a season average and a last-10-games average. Probability score = how well the chances across the listed lines matched reality (lower is better), against a season average.
THIS SEASON SO FAR
HOW IT'S SCORED
NBA projections were fitted on the 2024-25 season and tested on every 2025-26 regular-season game, which the model never saw while being built. Each projection used only games played before tip-off.
PLAYER MARKETS held-out 2025-26 season
Avg miss = average distance from the projection to the result; lower is better. The model must beat a simple season average and a last-10-games average to be worth using.
THIS SEASON SO FAR
HOW IT'S SCORED
Every projection below was rebuilt using only information available before kickoff, then compared with what the player or team actually did. The model was fitted on 2025 games, so none of these weeks were used to build it.
EVERY MARKET pregame median vs actual
Avg miss = average distance between the projection and the result. Over % should be near 50% if the projection sits in the middle. The 80% range should contain the result about 80% of the time. Tap a market for the detail.